Djokovic Back to Best in Shanghai, Nadal Makes Another Great Escape

Djokovic carried on where he left off in the first round against Rosol today. He was in the zone all match and gave Querrey no chance, winning 6-1, 6-2. I watched this match and the Djoker's returning was just on fire. Querrey has a big serve but Djokovic swatted it for winners like it was nothing. Djokovic should have broken at 3-1 in the 2nd set as well, but failed to challenge the ball after hitting a forehand winner that clipped the line when he was 30-15 up.

It didn't matter much though, because Djokovic broke at 4-2 and closed the match out with an ace at 5-2. It was another breathtaking performance, one which makes me believe he can actually beat Nadal if they meet in the final. Nadal would still be the slight favorite for me though, just because he has beaten Djokovic the last three times now and seems to be in his head somewhat. Nadal is just unplayable right now, and even when he is playing another opponent who was in the zone he finds a way to win.

I couldn't watch his match against Fognini and just caught some highlights. From what I hear Fognini had 2 break points to go up 4-0 in the 2nd set, and 1 break point to go up 5-1. Then at *4-2 and 30-0 he went for a ridiculous drop shot from a winning position which barely hit the net, in true Fog style. Nadal reeled off 11 out of 12 games from 1-4 in the 2nd set to win 2-6, 6-4, 6-1, in true Nadal style. So both Fognini's recklessness and Nadal's die hard attitude contributed to the result of this match.

If you watched this match and saw Nadal broke back at 4-2, you must have known this match was over. We have seen this scenario play out too many times not to. Nadal had worked his way back into a match he had no right of winning while Fognini blew another great opportunity. It is just the nature of the two men. It seems Djokovic and Nadal's form in Beijing is alternating, because after the Kohlschreiber match where I thought Nadal was unplayable he seemed vulnerable against Fognini again.

If the pattern continues Nadal will be on fire again tomorrow against Berdych and Djokovic may put in another average performance by his high standards. Don't be fooled by appearances though. Nadal is the favorite for this title as far as I'm concerned. But by a very small margin. Djokovic is playing some amazing tennis too. I just think if he is to beat Nadal again he needs to have a better transition and net game. But who knows. He seems to play really well in Beijing and a win here over Nadal would make the rivalry interesting again.

But we are not in the final yet. Nadal plays Berdych who he was beaten the last 14 times for a 15-3 head-to-head. Djokovic plays Gasquet who he leads 8-1 in the head-to-head. So you would expect both players to win given current form and the head-to-head records. If anything I can see Djokovic go to three sets with Gasquet. Gasqet scored another excellent 6-4, 6-3 win over Ferrer today which helps his chances in the race to London. Together with Wawrinka he is now right on the heels of Federer.

In Tokyo Del Potro defeated Dolgopolov after dropping the first set, 4-6, 6-4, 6-2. He plays Almagro now who beat local favorite Nishikori 7-6(2), 5-7, 6-3. I just caught the last game of that match and Nishikori was clearly injured which was a shame to see. In the bottom half Raonic continued his impressive form of late with a routine 6-3, 6-3 win over Lacko. He now plays Dodig and has a great chance to make the final here at least, in which case he would pass Tsonga in the race to London.

So things are heating up nicely in the race. Today I learned that there is still a chance Murray could play in London, which makes things even more interesting. Federer, Wawrinka, Gasquet, Raonic, and Tsonga are all now in a battle for the final spots and I also found out today that Federer may add Vienna to his schedule, depending on how he performs in Shanghai. So clearly he is very intent on qualifying. But Wawrinka, Gasquet, and Raonic are all in with very good shouts as well.